Moore's Law: Fact or Challenge?

In a 1965 paper, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore suggested that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit had been and would continue to double about every two years.  In the more than forty years since "Moore's Law" was born, this exponential advance in transistor improvement has held true.  In reality, Moore's Law is more of a prediction of a constant rate of innovation, rather than a true scientific law.  But could it be more than a prediction, and possibly itself a challenge that is driving improvement?

Larry Page, co-founder of Google, believes that Moore's Law is actually a challenge that is helping driving the dividend of processor advancement.  In a recent interview for Fortune, Page says:

"People think Moore's Law is a description of what happened.  But Moore's Law actually caused people to do the right thing.  Everyone was organized about it - making things better quickly."

In other words, by suggesting that innovation in transistor advancement was a "law," companies and individuals felt confident that they could improve further - and they felt the pressure to be the first to reach the next level (otherwise someone else inevitably would first).

I have to admit, this is a pretty deep thought that I will have to ponder more than the usual time to put together a blog post.  I wonder if there are other ways we can artificially create "laws" that end up driving innovation.  Many people have attempted to set goals - like reaching Mars by 2030 - but we easily shrug these off as hopeful desires rather than inevitabilities.  There are also times when an innovation is near, and competition ensues to be the first to reach it.  For example, in the late 1930s as research on splitting the atom accelerated, scientists and military commanders realized that an atomic bomb was possible.  Thus, a deadly race began to reach this prize first.

I suppose we could look at the current fear of global warming as a "law" that is spurring concern, and innovation.  Most people agree that the Earth is warming due to human impact, and that negative consequences will result.  The law of global warming is gradually driving change.

If I could coin a law it would naturally be The Challenge Dividend - that challenge leads to improvement.  Sounds a lot better than Gilbreath's Law, and besides, there's already Gilbreath's Conjecture.

Comments

[raman]

well at least your conjecture is a LOT cooler than my spectroscopy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raman_spectroscopy

[David Rose]

I think Page is onto something. Most of the NASA engineers involved in delivering on Kennedy's pledge to put a man on the moon by the end of the 60s admit they had no idea how to achieve this. In fact, until the Fall of 1967, it was widely believed they would miss the target and the Russians would beat them to the moon. However, the challenge, forced them to rethink old paradigms and get out of their comfort zone. I think for the same reason, agencies love new business pitches. It creates a forum for creative thinking and getting outside of the box that agencies and client alike feel uncomfortable doing once in a relationship.

[Antony Demekhin]

I'm a big fan of Moore's Law and how it drove digital innovation over time(it's the nerd in me). I'd be curious to know whether Moore's personal intent was to predict or to challenge/drive innovation in the technological space.

Another twist and contributor to Moore's Law holding true was the relevance and benefit of adhering to his "call to action" over the past 40 years (whether it was scientific theory or challenge). Technological innovation had been booming since the industrial revolution and as digital technologies emerged, there was a vast landscape of opportunity for the private and public sectors to make life better (and grow gigantic brands in the process).

I guess what I'm trying to say is, if someone discovered that Mars was rich in vital natural resources or precious metals and then set a similar "prediction", we may be closer to achieving that goal than we are today (if not already living on Mars) :)

[Bob G]

I love the comparisons to the Moon shot. I wonder, why hasn't President Bush's call to send a man to Mars taken hold? Is it the fact that we're not competing with the USSR anymore?