The Coming College Crunch

Last week the Washington Post reported that after 15 consecutive years of growth, the number of college applicants will flatten next year and begin to decline.  It might seem like bad news for universities, but I believe this will help improve the college value equation for a generation of students.

For many years, colleges of all shapes and sizes have lived high on the hog.  A flood of increasing applicants gave them the right to increase tuition far above inflation, and they funneled money to bloated facilities and staffs.  This embarrassment of applicants has provided schools with too many resources and too little competition.  But now change is in the air.

I believe a reduction in applicants will cause some years of pain and belt-tightening, then perhaps will unleash a renaissance of improvement.  Already some schools are adjusting for more competitive times.  The 700-student Northland College in Wisconsin has repositioned itself as an environmental liberal arts school.  Trinity Washington University is building programs to attract more adult students.

We're only in the early innings of a resurgence in challenge for colleges.  Keep watching this space and I'll provide continual updates in the years to come.

Comments

[Jonathan Richman]

I hadn't seen these data yet, but I think the conclusion is right on. There is already a real-world demonstration of the effect of decreasing enrollees in colleges.

Post-Katrina, applications dropped dramatically at Tulane University (my alma mater). The school also was forced to close for an entire semester (1/2 year in their case) with no revenue coming in. The result? A dramatic plan to cut positions, the number of specialty areas, colleges, and all while providing an emphasis on what the school is best at.

You can see the entire plan here (http://renewal.tulane.edu/renewalplan.pdf).

In the end, this definitely makes for a stronger school and one that will have even higher academic standards and, I believe, turn out even better graduates.

When I attended, Tulane ranked in the top 30 or so schools (according to US News and World reports). The year after the hurricane, and the latest rankings, it dropped to 50 because of lower graduation and application rates. However, I have no question that it'll be far higher than 30 in a few years, something that might not have been possible without something incredibly dramatic requiring a hard look at what the school stands for. Seems like a lot of schools are going to have to do the same in the coming years.

JMR

[Bob G]

Great attitude, Jonathan. I wonder if anyone else in the student, professor or alum group would agree that this challenge will lead to improvement? I'd hope yes, but fear no.