(Giants win 17-14 - I was right!)
Sports provides a rich field to explore concepts of The Challenge Dividend. They are a public display of competition driving improvement - both in the quality of plays and players, and the entertainment value for the fans. From time to time I have used this blog to either prove a Challenge Dividend concept by looking back on a sporting event - or to predict a future game. Last Spring I predicted incorrectly that the heavily-favored Florida Gators would not win the NCAA Basketball Championship. And despite my very public bad call, I'm ready to prognosticate an upset again: The New York Giants will win the SuperBowl.
I know, I know, probably a pretty dumb call. The wisdom of the betting crowd has pegged the Giants as 12-point underdogs as of Wednesday morning. But I think a few Challenge Dividend elements might come into play. Here's a few areas where challenge could drive improvement, and be the winning edge in a match of two skilled teams. Call it a "Challenge Dividend Tail of the Tape":
- Challenged During the Year: The Patriots haven't been challenged enough. All season long, the Patriots were a situation in which they were playing with their backs against the wall. They mainly blew away opponents throughout the year. And when they were in close games, there was little real pressure to say, win or not make the playoffs. The Giants didn't have an easy path, and even had to play in the Wildcard game. They had to win 10-straight games on the road to get into the playoffs, and many of their games were see-saw battles. Edge: Giants.
- Pressure To Win: The team with the most pressure to win (or not lose) will be driven to work harder and focus more. The Giants have nothing to lose. As underdogs, everyone is expecting this team to go down. The Patriots have everything to lose. They will lose all of this season's history and glory if they fail to become the first 19-0 team. They would go from heroes to zeros Edge: Patriots.
- The Opportunity for Glory: The Patriots have already been to the mountaintop several times. Aside from a few rookies and veterans, this team has achieved their moment in the sun multiple times. The legacy of Brady and Belichick is set, win or lose. On the other hand, the 19-0 glory is something unique and maybe inks them in the history books as the best ever. Meanwhile, the Giants have all the pressure of New York's tough fans and media, and haven't gotten this far since the Jeff Hostetler era. Eli Manning and Coach Coughlin have still not proven themselves on the national scene. This is a close one, but Slight Edge: Giants.
When I analyze this game I'm reminded of my Freshman year at Duke University (1991), when our basketball team met the undefeated UNLV Runnin' Rebels in the semifinals of the Final Four. You may recall that this UNLV team was also undefeated coming into the game, had beaten Duke by 30 points in the championship game the previous year, and had a roster that included four future NBA picks.
But Duke had the Challenge Dividend on its side: it sought its first championship in school history, it played close games all year long, and its coach and players didn't want to be embarrassed like the previous year. Coach K put together a unique defensive approach and the game was close all the way through. Under its first close contest of the year, UNLV was in new ground - and got nervous under the pressure. The result: A Duke upset for the ages and it's first championship two days later.
There are many, many other factors to consider when picking this game. Everything from analysis of their regular season contest, to Brady's boot, to the flu bug sweeping the Giants locker room. I don't think the Giants are a lead pipe cinch by any means, but in a close game, the Challenge Dividend could make the difference.
Postscript: Before the Duke/UNLV game in 1991, street vendors were already selling t-shirts emblazoned with "UNLV Back-to-Back / Undefeated Champs". After Duke's upset, the most popular shirt on campus was this "Dewey Defeats Truman"-like keepsake. Interestingly, The Boston Globe is already selling pre-orders for a book celebrating the 19-0 season.
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