Way back in April of 2006 I first highlighted what was at the time an upcoming standards battle for the next generation of DVD players in games, movies and data storage. Back then, my prediction was that HD-DVD would win out, along with millions of consumers. Nine months later, it is a good time to revisit the war's progression and in two battle fronts in particular - technology and "adult titles".
First, on the sales data front, both sides have claimed victory, but it is far too early to call either a leader or winner. Overall sales of players and discs are low on both sides. The best data I could find on this highly watched race comes from a British technology blog, Hack247, that tracks sales of hi-def movies on Amazon.com. From their research things look fairly neck-and-neck.
One of the most intriguing developments in this war is an announcement that dual format players and discs have landed. China's LG introduced a dual format player that is already on store shelves. And Warner announced a new dual-format disc that can play either format depending on your player. Evidently, manufactures of hardware and software do not like waiting for a victor to emerge. They are responding to the pressure by going straight to the consumer and offering whichever version he or she prefers.
Unlike the VHS vs. Betamax war, this could lead to a win-win on all sides. Instead of crowning one single format winner, this promises to build a long-term competition between the two formats. Each one will have an opportunity to continue improving the experience, and consumers will be able to move freely between the two.
The second development comes from the much-watched Adult Video market. Industry experts have long maintained that the VHS format won over Betamax in large part due to the formers win among Adult movie makers. Today, it seems that Adult studios prefer the HD-DVD format over Blu-ray. The main driver for this preference is that the format is cheaper to produce with little quality difference.
But additionally, Sony has not given any Adult studio a license to produce Blu-ray movies. Sony claims this is a position they have had for a long time, but its failure to allow a free market may be what helps to destroy its hopes for dominance. Bigger picture, it should be frightening for consumers and artists to cede this kind of power over content to a company like Sony. If Sony wins this format war, we could see it rise as a corporate Big Brother, determining the type of content we are able to watch in our private homes.
(Side note: The New York Times discovered that Adult Video stars are feeling more exposed than ever due to the true realism of the HD format. The audience can now see every imperfection, and they are being challenged to hit the treadmill and plastic surgery centers.)
Finally, there is a growing belief that this war will be futile in the end. High-speed Internet connections have gone far beyond the 50% penetration rate, and new players are competing to deliver HD movies without a special player. My Xbox 360 now offers the ability to download HD-quality movies directly from its Xbox Live service. No $600 player or $100 add-on required. Apple is now getting into the game with Apple TV, a device that downloads content and pushes it to your television.
As I always have written on this topic, it will be interesting to both watch from the sidelines and benefit from this war in my living room.
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