The buzz, spin and predictions are hitting a fever pitch this week as the nation prepares for yet another too-close-too-call election. And while I prefer to keep my personal politics out of this blog, one thing I am proud to say is if "The Challenge Dividend" were a party, it would vote for a Democratic Congress. Not according to party policy, but because there is nothing better for government than challenge from divided branches; and nothing better for progress than gridlock.
"Gridlock" has mainly been a description of derision in politics. It happens when the parties prefer fight and debate to making laws, and sends a message that "nothing is getting done." There are two reasons that I love gridlock in government.
First, at minimum, it means that there are good debates and more than one perspective tipping the scales of lawmaking. The recent Republican majority in Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches has led to some of the most one-sided thinking and policy in my lifetime. Subsidies to oil companies, record deficits, bridges to nowhere, homeland spying, and the disastrous decision-making on Iraq all were mainly driven by a lack of balance and too many blank checks due to Republican control. The Cato blog points to research that shows government spending runs out of control during times of united government.
Second, at best, government IS unable to get anything done. By and large, government is more likely to make bad laws than good laws. So it is often better to have no laws at all. Here's why:
- You can't guess the market. The world changes before laws can even be put into place, and it cannot wait for government to pick a direction.
- Out of touch. Internets - 'nuff said.
- There is no unified goal. Is government's job to boost productivity? Or to protect jobs? Without clear objectives they cannot make clear decisions.
- Self-interest. Politicians are worried about their jobs more than making the right decisions. And at times, make decisions that personally benefit them and their friends. This is human nature.
- Imbalance of special interest. Special interests of all kinds use funds and favors to push their agendas, and there is no group that similarly lines up the majority to fight them. Voters are literally nickeled and dimed for special giveaways because it is not worth fighting for.
A do nothing Congress is doing just fine by me. Although it means that we lose the opportunity for some "good" laws to get passed, in times of trouble we have seen legislatures unite for what is right.
So if you want The Challenge Dividend voting guide: pick Democrats in 2006.
Side Note: If you are interested in predicting the results, forget the polls, look to the money The Iowa Electronic Markets is a forum where experts and regular citizens can bet on the results. This method of prediction has beat polls again and again. At this link you can see the history of the Congressional race bets, which suggests a Democratic House and Republican Senate.
UPDATE:
- The Democrats have picked up both House and Senate
- The Iowa Electronic Markets got it right
- Most voters and the business community appears to agree that "Gridlock is Good"
It'll be an interesting race, that's for certain.
Personally, I think it's critically important to increase the transparency of how Congress operates. The "Read the Bills Act" (http://www.downsizedc.org/read_the_laws.shtml) is one of the best ideas I've seen so far. The Act would require the publication of all laws before they come to a vote & mandate that each and every member of Congress certifies that they've read the entire contents of each bill before they pass it into law.
Something along these lines would go a long way towards preventing bad laws, corruption, and special interest legislation / spending.
Posted by: Josh Kaufman | October 30, 2006 at 11:36 AM